The Wrong Kind of Luck

Well headed off the the Grosvenor for Friday nights £20 Double Chance and ended up with 40 runners.  Normally I wouldn’t bother writing about tournaments like this as they’re mostly standard and you either get the chips or you don’t.  However stuff happened that basically show what kind of ‘advanced’  luck I don’t have.  And by advanced luck I mean when you get those massive hands at end of tourneys that really decide your fate.

Most people see luck as just winning those flips or getting the odd suckout but the real luck is getting into those situations where you get the hands that get really paid off.  Everyone always complains about the hands that get beat when they’re dominating but to me that’s not such a big deal because people don’t realise that 1/5 times is not that unlikely.  Yeah I give my fair share of 20%ers but coming at shite times like i’m the short stack or the other player is so I don’t get paid.  Same with the good hands, picking up hands hitting big flops etc but i’m up against a short stack or short myself and don’t get paid.  Then there’s the times like getting a good hand and walking into a bigger one or just not winning a key race.  I could go on forever about the various situations.

Early in the tournament was pretty standard, played very tight and wait for hands for the Grosvenor fishes to pay me off which worked and was up to 10k at the break.  Can’t remember much of the middle stages but as usual I was happy being between 6-20bbs where my decision making is just easy.  Then there were 2 key situations came up last night where I was left with tough decisions at the end of the tournament.

First hand came up on the final table bubble (10 left) where someone min raises and card guard re raises on the button.  I look down at AK in the sb and realise i’m gonna be committed for all my chips, card guard aint folding so have to think it out.  The toughest thing was that card guard had been a card rack all night, had a big stack and was just picking up big hands and putting massive raises in as I was in the blinds and didn’t want to trap and take all my chips, then showing he wasn’t just stealing.  I count my chips out realising i’ll have 7.5bbs left (when blinds go up as it was the end of level and clocked stopped) if I fold here and with the FT bubble burst during the hand I think I could get a spot to get chips in first.  I think if I bothered to work out the odds here i’d have probs gone all in for the chance to get right back in and chance at winning.  Anyhow I eventually folded as I was happy to play short stack and get my chips in with a crapper hand rather than basically calling with AK when I still have enough to fold.  Other player passes and card guard shows AQ (sigh) with a blank board (sigh).  This is where this advanced luck thing comes in whereby I have a good hand there, short handed and short stacked but with a raise and re raise and end up folding only to see i wudda won.  There’s so many other times where I get AK when short, get them in and lose vs a pair.

First hand of final table and i’ve actually got 9 bbs as the blinds went back, pick up 34s in mid position so decide it’s good enough to push based on players behind me and relative stack sizes and if I do get called well at least i’m best possible shape against the cards that do call.  I didn’t see the shortstack in the sb and he put the chips in then the bb tanks for a while.  BB passes and i show my 34s with amazement from the table obviously with no understanding of my reasoning here they just see the hand.  Up against QQ and end up rivering the flush picking up a small pot but gets me more comfotable again.  If the bb calls there then I basically knock them both out and have a very healthy stack for a short at the win but no.

Goes round a lap and pick up AA UTG+1.  Had that awful stack size where you dunno what to as a standard raise shows i’m committed and have a big hand, can’t shove because it’s just too many and i’m probs not getting called, i’m not limping so end up min raising signalling i’m very obviously.  Well ok, all the above is mostly crap cos that wasn’t my thinking at the time, I just made a mistake with the raise as I was just gonna do a standard raise and look like a normal hand.  Card guard tanks and the rest of the table passes, then card guard shows AK picking up on the information I explained above.

Next hand I get TT utg and not sure what to do so min raise again to 3200 to either signal same strength and pick up blinds as I don’t wanna play that hand outta position or i’m gonna get 1 or 2 callers and hope to flop big and get paid.  Well it folds round to sb who calls, as does the bb.  Flop comes 89J rainbow and the sb moves all in but it’s a string bet and i’m told I can call for 2500 but basically I know it’s for my whole stack.  This was mostly a maths decision because I think i’m drawing to the winning hand so eventhough the bet looks like he has a big hand, if I hit I win.  I don’t really have any info on the player so dunno if a stop and go is in his range or if he’s pushing with a hand like A9, A8 which is in the calling range pre flop. I do a really rough work out of odds and figure it’s somewhere around 2/1 which is what I needed and as my hand could actually be ahead I go ahead and move all in.  He shows J8c for two pair which then turns a full house and i’m gone in 8th for nout.

So that’s quite a nightmare situation where you’ve hit a hard flop like that but also to run into that sort of hand where he could easily miss and I pick up a nice pot.  If I win that there then i’m very comfy and be a lot more aggressive and probs go on for a 3 way chop with my dad and card guard.  Learned a lot about my game and the fact that i’m very inexperienced so I can get into situations where I honestly don’t really know what to do and prone to making mistakes.

Sorry it’s a long post but I like writing and would like to hear comments.